As of October 28, 2025 (early morning local time), Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a Category 5 monster with sustained winds of 175 mph and a central pressure of 901 mb—the lowest of the 2025 Atlantic season so far, edging close to historical records like Hurricane Wilma's 882 mb. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warns of catastrophic landfall expected this morning near St. Elizabeth Parish on Jamaica's southwestern coast, about 75 miles west of Kingston. The slow-moving storm (5–10 mph forward speed) will carve diagonally across the island, exiting near St. Ann Parish by evening, amplifying risks of prolonged devastation.
Forecast Timeline
| Time (Local, Oct 28) | Key Developments |
|---|---|
| Early Morning | Landfall near St. Elizabeth; winds 160–180 mph; storm surge up to 20 ft. |
| Midday | Core over central Jamaica; peak flash flooding in hills; landslides in vulnerable areas like Blue Mountains. |
| Evening | Exits northeast; weakening to Cat 4 but still lashing with 140+ mph gusts. |
| Post-Landfall | Heads toward Cuba/Grand Cayman as major hurricane; Jamaica under tropical storm warnings through Wed. |
Expected Impacts: A "Storm of the Century" for Jamaica
This could be Jamaica's most intense landfall on record, surpassing Gilbert (1988, Cat 5 with 130 mph winds). Here's the breakdown:
| Threat | Details | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| Winds | 160–180 mph sustained; gusts to 200 mph; widespread power outages, structural collapse. | Catastrophic (Cat 5) |
| Flooding | 20–30 inches rain in 24 hrs; rivers like Rio Cobre overflow; urban flash floods in Kingston. | Life-Threatening |
| Landslides | High in steep terrain; mudslides could bury roads/villages. | Devastating |
| Surge/Storm | 15–25 ft coastal surge; erosion in Montego Bay, Ocho Rios. | Destructive |
Jamaica's PM Andrew Holness has declared a national state of emergency, with evacuations underway in low-lying areas. Over 10,000 sheltered; airports/ports closed.
Stay Safe: Urgent Prep Tips
- Evacuate Now: If in surge/flood zones, head to higher ground or shelters (check ODPEM app).
- Secure Home: Board windows, stock 7+ days water/food/meds; charge devices.
- Monitor Alerts: NHC site, local radio (e.g., RJR 94 FM); avoid roads after dark.
- Post-Storm: Beware downed lines, contaminated water—boil or treat.
Melissa's "menacing eye" footage from recon flights shows a razor-sharp structure—stay tuned via NHC for updates. Jamaica's resilient, but this one's a beast. Thoughts or need evac resources?
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